The Annual Season Preview 14/15 Edition

Last year was this revolutionary year where surprise smaller clubs were able to challenge for the title. Instead, the three clubs at the bottom (Fulham, Cardiff and Norwich) simply accepted the fact they were going to have to play in the 2nd tier. Any revolutionary league would have seen them battle the top clubs after the season for the right to take ownership of the Premier League, but it wasn’t to be. The bottom three clubs after 380 matches are once again playing Championship football and after dropping points to Ipswich, Blackburn and Wolves respectively, they probably deserve to be there anyway.

What does that say about this year’s new lot. QPR came up through the playoffs after Bobby Zamora’s bullshit winner at the end of the final at Wembley. ‘Arry’s brought in Glenn Hoddle to teach his club that fancy 3-5-2 that has gone mainstream after the footballing hipsters decided it was the formation of the future. I don’t know what the hipsters have moved onto now; 4-4-2? Anyway, Redknapp’s looking at a threadbare 27 first team players for his squad filled with Rio Ferdinand and a bunch of veterans of relegation.

Meanwhile, Burnley are going to embrace that 4-4-2 formation that is now cool until it isn’t. They also have a bunch of bad Premiership experience, and Danny Ings who will likely be transferred to another newly promoted club next season. But they have heart, and that’s very important for a team trying to stay up.

Leicester City are also back up having managed over 100 points last season. This is yet another team that is filled with relegation veterans, but has a few more players who were deemed not good enough by the established clubs in the top flight. While #TheDifference (David Nugent) was consistently excellent last season, his time at Pompey back when they were up in this division will have people doubting the man with the perfect international goal scoring record for England. (1 cap, 1 goal, 1 yard out)

The way this season’s panning out, it looks like there are once again going to be 3 distinct group of clubs. The first would be the title challengers, the second is the group chasing Champions League qualification and pretty much everyone else can finish anywhere from 8th to 20th. I may as well continue with the last group since I’ve already got 3 of the 13 down.

Aston Villa have already hired their next manager to replace Paul Lambert when they have a poor start to the current campaign. Brad Guzan will be a star in goal until Roy Keane’s appointment means the return of Shay Given and almost certain relegation. At least they can remember those recent days when they were playing in Europe…and desperately wanting to no longer want to play in Europe.

Sunderland have more American interest in the form of Jozy Altidore. His 2 Premier League goals in 58 appearances isn’t a great return to be honest. Actually it’s God-awful by any standard for a striker at this level. I would expect him not to get many appearances and leave on loan to MLS in the spring because that’s just what will happen. I also would expect the Black Cats to struggle against the drop as well, but they could finish anywhere in the bottom half.

Just a bit further away in the northeast, Newcastle have actually spent money on some permanent transfers. Remy Cabella is the pick of the bunch. Will he get any service from the rest of the French contingent at the club? How much weight will Hatem Ben Arfa put on before his contract expires next summer? The club in the worst form at the end of last season should still have enough to survive and quickly exit the cups because even risking European qualification is terrible.

West Brom have appointed Alan Irvine as their new manager. Stability at the Hawthornes has been sacrificed for a carousel of managers that can be plugged in with the same group of players being required to play in different ways with each new appointment. God help the Baggies if they get off to a bad start because it could be a very long season of despair.

Over in south Wales, Swansea should be strong enough to stay up. Garry Monk and the last gilet in the Premier League have to live up to the standard of Brian Laudrup’s League Cup winning side of 2 seasons ago. They clearly aren’t going to achieve that level, but should do better than the 5 wins in 35 Premier League games that preceded the Dane’s departure. Wilfried Bony will be critical as much of the Spanish contingent has left the club.

West Ham have signed Emmer Valencia who is almost certainly guaranteed to be the post-World Cup bust of the season. Manager Sam Allardyce is continuously undermined by Gollivan, the monstrous combination of the two Davids that own the club. He’s being forced to make the club play the West Ham way. That would be a West Ham way that was when Harold Wilson was Prime Minister. They will almost certainly stay up, but will Big Sam be there this time next year?

The club still known as Hull City to this fair American is competing in the Europa League this year. That means that they have to be tipped for relegation, right? Having managed to extort £12 million on selling Shane Long after just buying him back in January, With the addition of relegation experience and having little firepower up front, it says a lot that they aren’t instantly tipped for relegation.

Crystal Palace decided they were going to play this season on hard mode yesterday. Sacking Tony Pulis on the eve of the new season, the Eagles will now be tipped to finish 20th. A squad with the potential to finish 12th, will be picked to finish bottom. That means Pulis must be worth at least £20 million a year as a manager. He’s officially the best in the world based on that assessment.

On that bombshell, we move on to Southampton, who apparently had a good season last year despite not challenging for European places and then selling most of the first team regulars to other clubs. Morgan Schneiderlin is still around, whether he wants to be or not. That’s the fault of the agent of this French World Cup squad member for not getting him the hell out of there before the season started. Ronald Koeman is the new boss after Mauricio Pochettino went to Spurs. James Ward-Prowse is still around and happy, right?

Then there’s Stoke. Good ole’ dependable Stoke City. It’s an exciting time to be a fan in the Potteries. Former talents with world class talents are now signing up to prove themselves on wet Tuesday nights. Bojan has joined after allegedly upsetting Pep Guardiola then being buried in the Barcelona team and sent on loan to big clubs that didn’t play to his strengths. Now he’s at Stoke after all of this. Anyway, provided Mark Hughes doesn’t completely screw things up, they should be able to finish 8th or so. That’s a big if, though.

Now it’s on to the 2nd tier of clubs where Tottenham have to take first consideration. They’ve bought a few defenders to solidify a defense that had them barely in positive figures as far as goal difference is concerned. Erik Lamela could not have had a worse debut season in England, so he must do better. Roberto Soldado could also help out with a couple goals as well. It will help take the burden of scoring off of Emmanuel Adebayor, the man who scared people at my office when I opened an email and his picture was on top.

Louis van Gaal has evidently brought the good feelings back to Old Trafford after Manchester United tanked to avoid even the Europa League at the end of last season. Poor Luke Shaw gets to be thrown to the wolves as his new boss insists he will never be fit enough. It’s almost like he has sideburns that he can never get rid of. Ander Herrera is probably the key man for this season, though ultimately it will be the Rooney and van Persie show that will get all the plaudits. That defense and central midfield still seem pretty thin for a challenge at those Champions League spots.

Everton paid a record fee to secure Romelu Lukaku on a permanent deal. After securing a record Premier League points haul in finishing 5th last season, I expect a reversion to the mean this season. The talisman Ross Barkley is going to miss time at the beginning of the season and Gareth Barry isn’t getting any younger in that midfield. The constant stream of loans from Stamford Bridge also have to be a source of concern for fans that are worried about the future of young starlets like Seamus Coleman and John Stones.

Elsewhere on Merseyside, Liverpool were just a slip away from capturing a surprise Premier League title. The race this year will be much more competitive. Competing without European fixtures and having to plan for midweek Champions League ties are two different challenges as Brendan Rodgers will find out this season. Replacing Luis Suarez will be an impossible task that they will almost certainly fail to do. Questions also have to be raised about buying Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana for inflated fees.

Now it’s on to the final 3 where we kick off with Arsenal. Having finally won a trophy last season, the good feelings have finally returned to the Emirates Stadium. With their 2nd big signing from the big 2 in La Liga in as many seasons in Alexis Sanchez expected to add firepower, there will be much more expected of the Gunners than their usual backing their way into 4th place of seasons past. Much will be expected of Aaron Ramsey as he was very impressive for Arsenal in the games he played before and after he returned from injury last season.

Chelsea looked like they were bringing back the old guard when they re-signed a 36-year-old Didier Drogba as cover up front. Felipe Luis, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa have all been brought in from La Liga and Jose Mourinho is prepping to give the Premier League one hell of a 2nd act on his return to England. The question as to who will be standing between the posts still hasn’t been answered, but the fact that Mourinho has kept Thibaut Courtois for this season suggests the Belgian will get the spot ahead of Petr Cech. That will alert all clubs across Europe who want a veteran keeper at the top of their game.

Finally there’s Manchester City. With the renewed growth of the game in the States, there may be a time when City are seen as the bigger club here than United. With New York and Melbourne affiliates and a partnership with Yokohama F Marinos, they look like a potential global force. What Manuel Pellegrini has done is fill the few holes that are left in the defending champions squad. Willy Caballero and Eliaquim Mangala are the major signings that will provide cover in goal and in defense respectively. The attack is as strong as always with David Silva and Sergio Aguero signing new contracts in recent days. They still look strong, but can they be just the 3rd team to defend their title in the Premier League era?

 

Glaringly Inaccurate Prediction of Where the Sides Will Finish

1. Chelsea
2. Manchester City
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Manchester United
6. Everton
7. Tottenham
8. Stoke
9. Newcastle United
10. West Ham United
11. Swansea City
12. Sunderland
13. Southampton
14. Hull City
15. Leicester City
16. QPR
17. Aston Villa
18. West Brom
19. Burnley
20. Crystal Palace

Top Scorer: Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

Best Signing: Cesc Fabregas (Barcelona -> Chelsea)

Worst Signing: Jack Rodwell (Manchester City -> Sunderland)

First Manager Sacked: Paul Lambert (Aston Villa)

Thoughts on an Upcoming Season

I usually do one of these prior to the start of the season. They end up being as accurate as the typical media preview (not very), so take anything below with a grain of salt. That’s not to say United will be relegated or anything.

Day 15: Just Punishments?

In the first week of this blog, I touched on the topic of Rangers Football Club and the potential ramifications it would have on the club and Scottish football as a whole. With the NCAA announcing the penalties this morning on Penn State in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky conviction and subsequent investigation that found there was a wide ranging cover-up, I couldn’t help how there are a few similarities in how the results worked themselves out. However, it must be noted that there still are vast differences in the punishments.

So to recap, Rangers were admitted to play in the Scottish Third Division, where presumably it will take them at least four years to contend for a title if not at least longer. They’ve lost several players who refused to transfer their contracts to the new company managing the club. They also currently do not have a television deal as disagreements continue among the 3 organizing bodies in charge over how revenue would be distributed. They are also subject to a transfer ban for one year from the end of the current transfer window and there is also talk of stripping some of the 54 league titles that they have won, though that seems unlikely.

Penn State’s football program, on the other hand, lost 14 seasons worth of victories, was fined the equivalent of one year of their revenue, banned from postseason for 4 years and any of their scholarship players are able to transfer immediately without penalty.

There was a lot of hyperbole flying around the former. A Rangers that wasn’t prominent would cause problems for Scottish society was one remark that was stated publicly. Ultimately, it seems the cause of their downfall was initially a desire to continue to be successful as an emerging Celtic team seemed to become the dominant power in Scottish football. Loans were taken out, then they took bad advise on the tax scheme that allowed them to bring in players on more money than they could afford which was ultimately what triggered the end game.

Penn State’s example seems to be more of a story about an institution that had bought into its own reputation as a special institution that was absolutely vital to the community. Protecting that relationship to the community came first and as a result they were too slow to react to signs of corruption in the middle. It wasn’t so much about making money as much as it was to uphold the image of the university. It was the classic case of doing something bad because it looked like something for the greater good in the minds of those involved.

Now as for who is left behind, the question is always asked of why the punishment seems to always affect the fans who had nothing to do with it more than those who were involved in wrongdoing. In the case of Rangers, the British taxpayer as well as a number of investors who put money into the club in good faith were the real victims. It looks like there will continue to be a Rangers Football Club playing competitive matches in the 2012-13 season, and the standard may be poor compared to what the fans are used to, but they still have a team to support.

Penn State’s victims in the context of this punishment is the image of major college athletics. The NCAA felt it had to draw a line in the sand on this type of incident being permissible by any of its members. Yes, there are the lives that were affected by Sandusky’s actions, but that was handled by a court of law. This was about the loss of institutional control that led to the coverup. I can’t help but wonder however, if the fact that the NCAA taking its image before anything else is not slightly ironic in this case.

Day 4: Fairness

The theme for the day quickly became fairness from the moment I woke up this morning and checked the ongoing drama that has become Rangers Football Club. For those who don’t know, the short version of the story goes like this:

For years Rangers had used a tax loophole to pay players additional money, but did so in a way that was not legal. The British government then called in for the back tax money they were owed. In the meantime, the club was sold for the princely sum of £1 and whose new owner elected to just not pay any tax money at all. The government issued winding up orders and administrators were appointed to run the club for the rest of the season. No agreement could be made between a new owner and the government, so the remnants of the club were liquidated. The parts of the business that were relevant to the side on the pitch were moved to a new company, commonly known as Newco or Sevco in many circles. Labor laws also allowed players to refuse to have their contracts moved over, so many have left, though this is being disputed by the Newco’s owner.

The drama has now moved on to where this new company will have it’s football team play. At this point, the common consensus among fans, even a majority of Rangers fans, is to play in the Third Division of the Scottish Football League. Those who run the game believe they should play in the First Division, one level below the Scottish Premier League. The argument has basically been sporting integrity versus financial well-being. The fans one the opening battle by blocking the new club from playing in the SPL. Tomorrow, will come the vote on where the new club will play, if the SFL chooses to vote them in at all.

This whole episode has reminded me of another issue making the rounds here in the US, which also begins with taxes. There is a populist side, with the support in most polls of raising taxes on the rich. Those in power say that it is punishing success, and in fact taxes on the rich should be lowered further. In both cases I can see the can being kicked down the road. For the former that may be the correct course of action long term. For the latter, not so much.